\\\\( \nonumber \newcommand{\bevisslut}{$\blacksquare$} \newenvironment{matr}[1]{\hspace{-.8mm}\begin{bmatrix}\hspace{-1mm}\begin{array}{#1}}{\end{array}\hspace{-1mm}\end{bmatrix}\hspace{-.8mm}} \newcommand{\transp}{\hspace{-.6mm}^{\top}} \newcommand{\maengde}[2]{\left\lbrace \hspace{-1mm} \begin{array}{c|c} #1 & #2 \end{array} \hspace{-1mm} \right\rbrace} \newenvironment{eqnalign}[1]{\begin{equation}\begin{array}{#1}}{\end{array}\end{equation}} \newcommand{\eqnl}{} \newcommand{\matind}[3]{{_\mathrm{#1}\mathbf{#2}_\mathrm{#3}}} \newcommand{\vekind}[2]{{_\mathrm{#1}\mathbf{#2}}} \newcommand{\jac}[2]{{\mathrm{Jacobi}_\mathbf{#1} (#2)}} \newcommand{\diver}[2]{{\mathrm{div}\mathbf{#1} (#2)}} \newcommand{\rot}[1]{{\mathbf{rot}\mathbf{(#1)}}} \newcommand{\am}{\mathrm{am}} \newcommand{\gm}{\mathrm{gm}} \newcommand{\E}{\mathrm{E}} \newcommand{\Span}{\mathrm{span}} \newcommand{\mU}{\mathbf{U}} \newcommand{\mA}{\mathbf{A}} \newcommand{\mB}{\mathbf{B}} \newcommand{\mC}{\mathbf{C}} \newcommand{\mD}{\mathbf{D}} \newcommand{\mE}{\mathbf{E}} \newcommand{\mF}{\mathbf{F}} \newcommand{\mK}{\mathbf{K}} \newcommand{\mI}{\mathbf{I}} \newcommand{\mM}{\mathbf{M}} \newcommand{\mN}{\mathbf{N}} \newcommand{\mQ}{\mathbf{Q}} \newcommand{\mT}{\mathbf{T}} \newcommand{\mV}{\mathbf{V}} \newcommand{\mW}{\mathbf{W}} \newcommand{\mX}{\mathbf{X}} \newcommand{\ma}{\mathbf{a}} \newcommand{\mb}{\mathbf{b}} \newcommand{\mc}{\mathbf{c}} \newcommand{\md}{\mathbf{d}} \newcommand{\me}{\mathbf{e}} \newcommand{\mn}{\mathbf{n}} \newcommand{\mr}{\mathbf{r}} \newcommand{\mv}{\mathbf{v}} \newcommand{\mw}{\mathbf{w}} \newcommand{\mx}{\mathbf{x}} \newcommand{\mxb}{\mathbf{x_{bet}}} \newcommand{\my}{\mathbf{y}} \newcommand{\mz}{\mathbf{z}} \newcommand{\reel}{\mathbb{R}} \newcommand{\mL}{\bm{\Lambda}} \newcommand{\mnul}{\mathbf{0}} \newcommand{\trap}[1]{\mathrm{trap}(#1)} \newcommand{\Det}{\operatorname{Det}} \newcommand{\adj}{\operatorname{adj}} \newcommand{\Ar}{\operatorname{Areal}} \newcommand{\Vol}{\operatorname{Vol}} \newcommand{\Rum}{\operatorname{Rum}} \newcommand{\diag}{\operatorname{\bf{diag}}} \newcommand{\bidiag}{\operatorname{\bf{bidiag}}} \newcommand{\spanVec}[1]{\mathrm{span}{#1}} \newcommand{\Div}{\operatorname{Div}} \newcommand{\Rot}{\operatorname{\mathbf{Rot}}} \newcommand{\Jac}{\operatorname{Jacobi}} \newcommand{\Tan}{\operatorname{Tan}} \newcommand{\Ort}{\operatorname{Ort}} \newcommand{\Flux}{\operatorname{Flux}} \newcommand{\Cmass}{\operatorname{Cm}} \newcommand{\Imom}{\operatorname{Im}} \newcommand{\Pmom}{\operatorname{Pm}} \newcommand{\IS}{\operatorname{I}} \newcommand{\IIS}{\operatorname{II}} \newcommand{\IIIS}{\operatorname{III}} \newcommand{\Le}{\operatorname{L}} \newcommand{\app}{\operatorname{app}} \newcommand{\M}{\operatorname{M}} \newcommand{\re}{\mathrm{Re}} \newcommand{\im}{\mathrm{Im}} \newcommand{\compl}{\mathbb{C}} \newcommand{\e}{\mathrm{e}} \\\\)

This exercise should be done in groups of 2 or 3 students.

The following R-code simulates random arma models of a specified order (AR order equal to p and MA order equal to q), and prints out the parameters and makes a plot of the ACF and PACF of 5000 simulations steps

p <- 1 # AR order
q <- 1 # MA order

n <- 5000

theta <- runif(p,-1/p,1/p)
phi <- runif(q,-1/q,1/q)

Y <- arima.sim(list(ar=theta,ma=phi),n)

par(mfrow=c(1,2))

acf(Y,main="ACF")
pacf(Y,main="PACF")

cat("AR parameters:",round(theta,3))
cat("MA parameters:",round(phi,3))
  • Run the code a few times for varying values of p and q and look at the ACF and PACF plots.
  • Use the golden table for ARMA identification to describe why the figures (hopefully) make sense.
  • Take turns where one group member:
    1. Chooses a model order at secret
    2. Runs the script to generate the ACF and PACF plots
    3. Asks the rest of the group members to guess ARMA order based on the plots
  • The difficulty can be increased by reducing the amount of simulated observations (i.e. reducing n).